Two days ago, Kenyans wit­nessed a shock­ing rev­e­la­tion from the Direc­tor Gen­er­al Mac­don­ald Obud­ho, of the Kenya Nation­al Bureau of Sta­tis­tics (KNBS). In a tele­vised con­fes­sion, he admit­ted that the bureau ‘smoothened cen­sus num­bers to con­form with the real­i­ty”. This rev­e­la­tion comes in the wake of a High Court rul­ing that nul­li­fied the 2019 cen­sus results for Garis­sa, Wajir, and Man­dera coun­ties due to doc­tored fig­ures, call­ing for a repeat cen­sus in the affect­ed areas.

Sure­ly, sta­tis­tics are the foun­da­tion of nation­al plan­ning and eco­nom­ic fore­cast­ing. Every pol­i­cy deci­sion, from resource allo­ca­tion to devel­op­ment ini­tia­tives, relies on these fig­ures. Painful­ly there­fore, this con­fes­sion rais­es a dis­turb­ing ques­tion: If KNBS ‘smoothens’ cen­sus fig­ures, what else has been manip­u­lat­ed? Have eco­nom­ic growth rates, employ­ment num­bers, and infla­tion data also been altered?

Inac­cu­rate cen­sus data leads to the mis­al­lo­ca­tion of resources. Pop­u­la­tion data deter­mines gov­ern­ment fund­ing for health, edu­ca­tion, infra­struc­ture, and social ser­vices. If cer­tain regions are under­count­ed, they receive few­er resources than they deserve. Con­verse­ly, if num­bers are inflat­ed, some areas unfair­ly ben­e­fit. The impact is dis­as­trous: hos­pi­tals with­out enough med­i­cine, schools with inad­e­quate teach­ers, and roads that remain unbuilt. Intrigu­ing­ly accord­ing to the same KNBS report of 2023, cen­sus fig­ures also influ­ence food secu­ri­ty, hous­ing poli­cies, and elec­toral bound­aries, impact­ing par­lia­men­tary rep­re­sen­ta­tion and democracy!

For years, I have relied on KNBS data to ana­lyze nation­al trends, make informed eco­pre­neur deci­sions, and also guide dis­cus­sions in this col­umn. Many Kenyans, includ­ing researchers, busi­ness­es, and pol­i­cy­mak­ers, have done the same. Now, we must ask: Can we trust KNBS fig­ures any­more? Sta­tis­tics should be beyond reproach. Yet, the admis­sion that num­bers have been adjust­ed rais­es deep eth­i­cal con­cerns. If cen­sus fig­ures are manip­u­lat­ed, can reports on GDP growth, unem­ploy­ment, or infla­tion be trust­ed? Have our per­cep­tions of eco­nom­ic progress been shaped by false data? If trust in KNBS is bat­tered, sus­pi­cion will spread, affect­ing investor cer­tain­ty and inter­na­tion­al integrity.

The Direc­tor Gen­er­al con­fessed that the prob­lem orig­i­nat­ed from the 2009 cen­sus, where num­bers in a par­tic­u­lar region were exag­ger­at­ed. He clar­i­fied that the issue was not with the 2019 cen­sus but rather the 2009 one, lead­ing them to ‘smoothen’ the fig­ures in 2019 to reflect real­i­ty. But two wrongs do not make a right. Admit­ting past errors does not jus­ti­fy present manip­u­la­tion. In a cred­i­ble sta­tis­ti­cal sys­tem, inac­cu­ra­cies should be addressed through trans­par­ent audits, not secret adjust­ments. Pre­sent­ing doc­tored data to Par­lia­ment, gov­ern­ment agen­cies, and inter­na­tion­al bod­ies is deception.

The deci­sion to nul­li­fy the 2019 cen­sus results in Garis­sa, Wajir, and Man­dera was a coura­geous step toward account­abil­i­ty. Those who went to court to chal­lenge the num­bers deserve praise. Their actions prove that jus­tice can be sought, even in tech­ni­cal mat­ters such as cen­sus results. How­ev­er, if dis­crep­an­cies were found in these three coun­ties, what about the rest of the coun­try? How many oth­er regions have been affect­ed by sta­tis­ti­cal manip­u­la­tion? More cas­es might have been filed, but many Kenyans trust­ed KNBS and accept­ed the num­bers at face value.

His­to­ry teach­es us the dan­gers of sta­tis­ti­cal manip­u­la­tion and I remem­ber a BBC report in 2010 where Greece, fal­si­fied eco­nom­ic data con­tribut­ing to a severe finan­cial cri­sis that near­ly col­lapsed the Euro­pean econ­o­my. Kenya must avoid a sim­i­lar fate. If we con­tin­ue bas­ing nation­al poli­cies on altered num­bers, we risk mak­ing poor eco­nom­ic choic­es that could have dev­as­tat­ing long-term effects. KNBS must under­go rad­i­cal reform. The cred­i­bil­i­ty of our nation­al sta­tis­tics must be restored through inde­pen­dent audits, trans­par­ent data col­lec­tion, stricter penal­ties for fal­si­fi­ca­tion, and pub­lic accountability.

Kenya’s data must be like a tree. If its roots are manip­u­lat­ed, its growth becomes dis­tort­ed. If its branch­es are unnat­u­ral­ly smoothened, it weak­ens and even­tu­al­ly col­laps­es. Deprived of water, it with­ers; poi­soned, it dies. A nation built on manip­u­lat­ed num­bers fol­lows the same fate. Only truth keeps it stand­ing. Let us demand accu­ra­cy in our data before we watch our coun­try crum­ble. Think green, act green.